Although the African air market currently accounts for just 2.1% of global traffic, it is growing fast. According to IATA, passenger traffic on the continent could increase by 5.7% a year until 2034, doubling current flows by 2040. Boeing estimates that 1,180 new aircraft will be needed in Africa by 2042 to meet this demand. This growth represents a unique opportunity for Africa to position itself as a key player in SAF production. An essential lever for achieving carbon neutrality. With the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) ambitious goal of achieving “zero net emissions” by 2050, SAF is emerging as a major alternative to fossil kerosene, reducing CO2 emissions by up to 80%.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 450 billion liters of SAF will be needed annually to achieve this goal, a colossal challenge requiring annual investments estimated at $174 billion. In Africa, current use of FAS is virtually non-existent, despite recent initiatives. By 2023, only 0.17% of the world’s aviation fuel requirements would be covered by SAF, or around 600 million liters produced. However, there is growing interest in the continent’s investment opportunities and production potential.
Zimbabwe, a promising actor
Zimbabwe’s ambition is to become a key supplier of SAF in Africa, thanks to its vast agricultural resources, vegetable oils (soybean, palm) and sugarcane. According to Nonkosi Ncube, Director General of the Civil Aviation Authority of Zimbabwe (CAAZ), a national study is currently underway to assess the country’s commercial potential in this sector.
This study marks a crucial step in our journey towards sustainable aviation. We seek to assess the FAS market, build a business case and identify regulatory frameworks for its development,
she said.The government plans to increase sugarcane production to 3.5 million metric tons by 2023-2024, providing essential raw materials for the manufacture of SAF.
South Africa, a potential pioneer
South Africa, with its experience in the production of synthetic fuels and its existing industrial infrastructure, is seen as a future regional leader. According to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), the country could produce between 3.2 and 4.5 billion liters of SAF per year. This potential is based on abundant raw materials, such as biomass and sugarcane by-products. Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist, underlines the importance of this opportunity :
South Africa can become a major producer of SAF, not only to meet local demand, but also to export. This would create jobs, reduce poverty and ensure greater energy independence.
Challenges and prospects for Africa
Although Africa has abundant resources, there are several obstacles to the development of FAS on the continent. The high cost of production remains a major challenge. Yvonne Makolo, President of IATA, points out that FAS, while crucial to achieving carbon neutrality, represents a significant financial burden for African airlines, already faced with high costs for conventional fuel. What’s more, SAF production must be carefully planned to avoid environmental and social risks. According to WWF, the expansion of this industry could encroach on agricultural land used for food crops, or lead to the degradation of water resources and forests.
Despite these challenges, several African countries and airlines have already begun the transition to FAS. In 2023, Royal Air Maroc and Kenya Airways made their first flights using SAF. Ethiopian Airlines, for its part, plans to integrate aircraft adapted to this fuel into its fleet. The efforts of private companies and governments to attract investment in the sector are also encouraging. For example, companies such as Sasol (South Africa) and Eni (Italy) are developing FAS projects in Africa.As ICAO and IATA push for a global transition to FAS, Africa is at a strategic crossroads. With its vast natural resources, agricultural potential and economic growth, the continent is well placed to become a major player in this sector.
