With GDP estimated at 28,000 billion CFA francs in 2025, Cameroon remains the second largest economy in the CEMAC region. However, its productive structure remains vulnerable. Oil exports still account for nearly 40% of customs revenues, even as national production declined by 8% in 2025 due to maturing oil fields and global price volatility. At the same time, public debt stands at approximately 50% of GDP, and debt servicing absorbed 824 billion CFA francs in 2024, significantly constraining the country’s fiscal space. In this context, the mining sector is emerging as a strategic alternative. Although iron ore reserves are estimated at more than 500 million tons with high grade content exceeding 65%, the sector contributed only 0.5% to GDP in 2025. The government aims to correct this imbalance by mobilizing large-scale investment and accelerating the development of major deposits. This ambition also fits within the regional integration framework of the African Continental Free Trade Zone, which offers an expanded market for processed industrial products.
Three flagship projects at the core of the strategy
The mining portfolio presented by the Directorate General of Budget is built around three major projects scheduled for phased implementation starting in 2026.
The Mbalam project, with an estimated investment of 747 billion CFA francs, forms the backbone of the program. With reserves estimated at 775 million tons, it targets an initial production capacity of 20 million tons per year. The project includes the development of an open-pit mine and the construction of a 510-kilometer railway linking the site to the Port of Kribi. Initially led by the Australian company Sundance Resources, the project experienced logistical and financial delays that postponed first exports to 2026.
The Bipindi-Grand Zambi deposit, located in the South region, represents an investment of 570 billion CFA francs. It holds approximately 150 million tons of reserves and is expected to produce 5 million tons annually. Its strategic orientation toward local steel transformation positions it as a cornerstone of Cameroon’s industrial development agenda.
The Kribi-Lobé project, estimated at 431 billion CFA francs, benefits from a significant logistical advantage due to its proximity to the Kribi port complex. With reserves of 100 million tons, it is expected to enable faster production start-up and lower export costs, estimated at 15 dollars per ton compared to approximately 30 dollars through alternative routes.
By 2030, the combined output of these projects is expected to reach 30 million tons of raw iron ore per year, with a 50% local processing rate. The government’s target is to produce approximately 3 million tons of steel annually, covering domestic demand estimated at 1.5 million tons while generating surpluses for West and Central African markets.
Significant economic spillovers
Based on an international iron ore price of 120 dollars per ton in February 2026, exports could generate up to 3,600 billion CFA francs in annual gross revenues. After deducting extraction costs estimated at around 40 dollars per ton, fiscal revenues from royalties, corporate income tax, and VAT could yield between 500 and 700 billion CFA francs per year for the Treasury, equivalent to nearly 20% of current tax revenues.
The project’s economic multiplier is estimated at 2.5, meaning that each CFA franc invested could generate 2.5 CFA francs in additional GDP through employment, household consumption, and local supply chains. Projections suggest the creation of 50,000 direct jobs and 200,000 indirect jobs, with potential growth acceleration to 6% per year by 2030. If these targets are achieved, the budget deficit could narrow from 3% to 1% of GDP.
Industrialization remains a central pillar of the strategy. The establishment of a steel plant in Kribi, estimated at 300 billion CFA francs, would enable domestic production of construction steel and related products for the rapidly expanding infrastructure sector, where demand is growing by approximately 15% annually. Such capacity could reduce steel imports currently valued at about 500 billion CFA francs per year by nearly 80%.
Despite promising projections, significant risks remain. International iron ore prices are highly volatile, having fallen by nearly 50% in 2022. Without appropriate hedging mechanisms, profitability could be severely affected. Furthermore, 60% of the financing is expected to come from public-private partnerships, exposing the government to potentially heavy commitments, particularly if foreign partners require sovereign guarantees. Infrastructure challenges remain critical, especially the full completion of the railway corridor linking Mbalam to the Port of Kribi. In addition, projects located in equatorial forest zones raise environmental and social concerns. Rigorous environmental and social impact assessments will be necessary to avoid disputes that could delay implementation.
Finally, regional competition from countries such as Guinea and Mauritania compels Cameroon to prioritize value addition and local processing in order to secure its competitive position within the continental market.
The 1,749 billion CFA franc investment program in the iron ore sector represents a strategic turning point for Cameroon’s economy. If implemented with discipline, transparency, and efficiency, it could reshape the country’s export structure, reduce dependence on hydrocarbons, and position Cameroon as a major steel producer in Central Africa. Conversely, delays, governance weaknesses, or prolonged global price downturns could turn this ambition into a fiscal burden. The year 2030 therefore stands as a decisive milestone in determining whether this mining bet will truly mark the beginning of Cameroon’s economic transformation.
