IMF outlook : Egypt on track to be Africa’s leading economic power by 2028

According to the IMF, Egypt, which saw its GDP plummet in 2024 due to the devaluation of its currency, should nevertheless resume growth in the medium term, reaching first place in 2028. Its gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to reach $476 billion in 2029, despite currency fluctuations that have impacted its dollar economy. The Egyptian pound lost 61% of its value against the dollar in March 2024, following a liberalization of the exchange rate recommended by the IMF. However, massive investments by the United Arab Emirates, estimated at $35 billion, have led to a slight recovery.

Nigeria takes a step backwards: loss of leadership due to devaluation of the naira

Nigeria, Africa’s leading economic power in 2023 with a GDP of $476.5 billion, has seen its wealth fall drastically, reaching $199.7 billion in 2024, a drop of 58%. This fall is due to the devaluation of the naira, which lost over 70% of its value against the US dollar between January 2023 and October 2024. Although the country recorded growth of 3.1% and benefited from significant investments such as the Dangote refinery, the currency effect strongly penalized GDP expressed in dollars. South Africa leads the way in 2024, with a GDP of $380 billion, a position it will hold until 2026 before being overtaken by Egypt. This rise is explained by the resilience of its diversified economy, despite major challenges such as power cuts and corruption.

Ivory Coast and Tanzania show the strongest gains

Algeria’s GDP will also grow in 2024, reaching $260 billion, an increase of 8% on the previous year. This increase is the result of a rebasing of the GDP calculation to include the informal sector, a decision that artificially inflates the country’s wealth. However, unlike Nigeria, Algeria maintains an official exchange rate that is disconnected from that of the parallel market, a choice that preserves the stability of its GDP in dollars.

Morocco, with a highly diversified economy, notably in the automotive, aeronautical and agricultural sectors, sees its GDP rise from $144.4 billion in 2023 to $157 billion in 2024. Growth should reach 219 billion in 2029, consolidating its position as Africa’s fifth economic power. The economies of Angola, Kenya, Ivory Coast and Tanzania continue to grow, buoyed by their natural resources and investment in infrastructure. However, Ivory Coast and Tanzania show the strongest growth, with their respective GDPs expected to reach 134 and 122 billion dollars by 2029.

The IMF points out that these projections must be interpreted with caution, as they depend on many factors, including exchange rates, inflation, commodity prices and geopolitical tensions. In particular, currency fluctuations can distort comparisons, as illustrated by the cases of Nigeria, Egypt and Ethiopia, where currency devaluations have reduced their GDP expressed in dollars without reflecting a real economic recession.This new ranking illustrates the challenges and stakes associated with monetary policies and structural reforms in an uncertain global context.