According to analysts at Rystad Energy, Africa now leads all other regions, far ahead of Asia, South America, Europe, the Middle East, North America and Oceania. Nearly 40% of the world’s major exploration wells are expected to be drilled on the continent, confirming Africa’s return to the center of the global energy map. This momentum is largely driven by the Atlantic margin and the Gulf of Guinea, which have become the new strategic heart of offshore exploration. As legacy fields in mature basins such as the North Sea continue to decline structurally, international oil companies are seeking new growth engines capable of sustaining production over the medium and long term.
Massive CAPEX to push technological boundaries
Ultra-deepwater drilling represents not only a geological challenge but also a major financial bet. Each well can cost several hundred million dollars, requiring subsea robotics, heavy equipment and highly specialized expertise. Across Africa, total capital expenditure for exploration and development is expected to exceed $30 billion by 2026. Cumulative projects in Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Mozambique alone could reach $60 billion by 2027. In 2024, African oil and gas CAPEX already stood at $47 billion, with a sharp acceleration anticipated as discoveries move toward development.
Huge geological potential, still held back by investment conditions
Africa holds more than 125 billion barrels of undeveloped hydrocarbons, representing around 7.2% of global reserves. Yet despite this abundance, the continent remains one of the least active regions worldwide in terms of operational drilling rigs. This paradox highlights persistent structural weaknesses upstream. Licensing rounds remain infrequent, regulatory frameworks are often unstable, and fiscal regimes are not always competitive enough to attract sustained international capital. These constraints continue to delay the monetization of strategic resources. At the same time, global energy demand keeps rising. The International Energy Agency projects that oil consumption could exceed 100 million barrels per day by 2050 if current policies remain unchanged. In this context, Africa’s resource base takes on growing geopolitical significance.
Nigeria, Angola and Namibia : Africa’s new offshore triangle
The revival of exploration activity is most visible in Nigeria and Angola, now Africa’s two largest offshore drilling markets, each hosting eight offshore campaigns. Across the continent, 38 rigs are currently under contract, making this year one of the most active offshore drilling periods of the decade. Nigeria is attempting to reset its upstream trajectory. After a long licensing hiatus, the country launched a new bid round for 12 blocks its first since 2007 aimed at monetizing 209 trillion cubic feet of undeveloped natural gas. A new legal framework has also been introduced to attract $5-10 billion in near-term deepwater gas investments. Meanwhile, Namibia has emerged as Africa’s exploration hotspot. More than 12 offshore wells are planned for 2025-2026, with an estimated 60% success rate since 2021. The country now aims to enter Africa’s top five producers by 2030, driven by a string of highly promising discoveries.
Recent investment decisions confirm Africa’s growing strategic importance. Shell has strengthened its footprint in Nigeria and is considering up to $20 billion in investment in the Bonga offshore field, a cornerstone of Nigeria’s deepwater production. TotalEnergies has become the most active offshore operator in Africa, deploying eight drilling rigs across Angola, Nigeria and Namibia. The French major has also acquired a 40% stake in Namibia’s Mopane discovery from Galp Energia following encouraging results, and is expected to take a final investment decision later this year signaling a shift from exploration to industrial development.
Ultra-deepwater: high costs, high returns
Since 2021, 39 high-impact wells have already unlocked more than 250 million barrels of oil equivalent. Despite prohibitive costs, operators are betting on massive underexplored reserves, oil prices stabilizing around $70-80 per barrel, and phased production starting between 2029 and 2030. Technological challenges are partly offset by rising success rates particularly in Namibia and by gradually improving fiscal incentives across several African jurisdictions. At the same time, tightening climate requirements are making projects in mature European basins increasingly expensive, while African governments argue for “energy justice,” advocating differentiated transition pathways for emerging economies.
Africa now stands at a critical crossroads. The continent combines vast resources, renewed interest from global majors and sustained worldwide demand for hydrocarbons. Yet converting this momentum into lasting economic value will require regulatory stability, more frequent licensing rounds and significant investment in local infrastructure. Without a clear strategic vision and ambitious energy policies, Africa risks missing this historic opportunity. With decisive reforms, however, the continent could transform today’s exploration boom into a long-term growth engine firmly positioning itself as the world’s next major oil and gas hub.
